Principle Investigators in USA:
Dr. Neil Pederson, Eastern Kentucky University, Kentucky
Dr. Amy E. Hessl, West Virginia University, West Virginia
Dr. Peter M. Brown, Rocky Mountain Tree-Ring Research, Colorado
Principle Investigator in Mongolia:
Dr. Nachin Baatarbileg, National University of Mongolia
Project Summary:
The
impact of increasing temperatures and
changing hydroclimatic regimes on ecosystems is expected to be most
pronounced
and occur earliest in northern latitudes. The impacts on ecosystems may
be
exacerbated by climate-driven changes in disturbance regimes. Climate
change
impacts on ecosystems and their dependant economic systems may be
especially
significant in Mongolia, which contains a still largely agrarian
society. Here
we propose to document and quantify relationships between fire regimes
and
climate and human land use across Mongolia for the past four+ centuries
using
tree-ring data. Our main
objectives are: 1) to test hypotheses about climate forcing
of fire and forest dynamics by developing a regionally extensive
network of
fire and forest histories across Mongolia; and 2) to determine whether
recent
climatic changes in Mongolia have affected changes in fire regimes,
and, if so,
to identify the degree of temperature or hydroclimatic change required
to push
these systems into alternative states. Our
major goal is to extend the window of
observation of fire occurrences to better gauge whether recent fire
severity,
frequency, and spatial extent in Mongolia are within a historical range
of
variability of the past few centuries, or whether recent changes in
climatic
forcings may be affecting unprecedented changes in fire regimes. We
will sample
and analyze fire history and forest structural data from 40+ sites to
test
specific hypotheses about climate and human effects on disturbance
regimes and
forest conditions. All tree-ring data will be crossdated to provide
absolute
chronologies that can be compared between sites and with
reconstructions of
climate regimes and human history in Mongolia.
Intellectual
Merit: Findings from this
study will substantially
increase our understanding of how fires and changes in land use affect
forest
ecosystem patterns and processes within the context of annual to
multidecadal
climate variation. Study areas are located in a previously unstudied
area of
the world and will compliment a growing global-scale network of
absolutely
dated fire, climate, and forest history chronologies useful for
understanding
paleofire, paleoclimate, and paleoecological patterns and processes
across
multiple spatiotemporal scales. These datasets are critical for
understanding
the potential impacts of climate change on wildfire, which are both a
keystone
process in many ecosystems as well as a key biogeochemical process with
feedbacks to the atmosphere. Results will provide relevant data to
assist in
simulation models of the response of forest ecosystems to
climate change and increased land use not only in Mongolia, but also in
forested
ecosystems worldwide. Results will be disseminated to the international
scientific community through peer-reviewed publications, web sites, and
professional and scientific meetings.
Broader
Impacts: The research will benefit
both the US
and
Mongolia and contribute to international cooperation between the two
countries.
Funding will support two PhD students for study in the US (one
Mongolian), an
additional MS student, and involve several undergraduate students from
both the
US and Mongolia in field and laboratory research. Research elements
will be
incorporated into university curricula and continuing education
materials in
both Mongolia and the US. We will interpret and transfer our methods
and
research findings to decision makers, landowners, managers, and
conservation
organizations working in Mongolian forests and related ecosystems in
Asia.
Image: Stockton Maxwell
Image: Stockton Maxwell